Offline

We are all looking ahead around this time of the year.

Even I am guilty of this, and one of the “indicators” I look at around this time is the answer to the question: “Do you and your family plan to purchase more or less online in the next 3 months than normal?”

Every year, October sees the biggest spike. And it makes sense: the holidays are finally in sight for families.

This year, though, our numbers are lagging recent historicals (2023 and 2024):

I don’t know what to fully make of this.

I’m sure part of it is inflationary/macro-economic in nature (if everything costs more, I can’t spend as much on holiday gifts as I normally do), but I do wonder if some of this is also cultural: We spend so much time online now, and we’re beginning to spend so much time with AI… is there a desire to spend some money offline?

The numbers, if you look closely enough, have been trailing historically since December 2024—almost a whole year now. Oddly enough, this started when inflation started to calm down, so it feels like it couldn’t just be that. I don’t know?

But, even still, the cause might not be as important as the trend, especially if it means some amount of dollars are shifting at all.

For brands with retail distribution or their own brick-and-mortar operations, it could be a question worth asking, because the answers may inform future execution. Where should you be? Which channels should you be investing in more right now? Does discovery in one channel lead to a transaction in another? What sort of word-of-mouth and social proof is required to optimize each channel?

I don’t know the answers yet, and I don’t know if it’s even right, but it’s something worth paying attention to. Even if it’s just to look ahead.